To better fight the air war and support its ground forces, Ukraine has repeatedly asked Western countries for F-16 fighter jets, and those countries are moving toward supplying them.
Adjusting to Western-designed F-16s could be challenging for Ukrainian pilots used to Soviet-era jets, but Kyiv is also reportedly seeking a fighter that experts say may be a better fit for Ukraine’s needs: Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen.
The Ukrainians have “been eyeing them for over a decade,” Dmitri Alperovitch, host of the Geopolitics Decanted podcast, said on a recent episode recorded after a trip to Ukraine.
According to Alperovitch, Ukrainian officials say “they’re quite hopeful that they may be able to get at least some of them soon even as they’re pursuing the F-16.”
A Swedish Griffin
The Gripen is well regarded by experts and may be uniquely suited for the war in Ukraine. It can reach Mach 2 and fly at supersonic speeds without using an afterburner, a feature known as super-cruise that is shared by only a few jets, none of them Russian.
Besides air-to-surface missiles and bombs, the Gripen can carry a formidable suite of air-to-air missiles, including the IRIS-T, AIM-120 AMRAAM, and the cutting-edge Meteor, which boasts a range of more than 60 miles and can out-range Russia’s air-to-air missiles. Many Western countries also use these weapons, which may make it easier to resupply Ukraine.
The Gripen’s electronic-warfare suite was reportedly developed with Russian systems in mind, which would prove useful for countering Russia’s air defenses.
Adopting the Gripen would also be comparatively easy for Ukraine’s Air Force, as it is very pilot-friendly, according to a Gripen pilot, and only one member of the jet’s ground crew needs to be highly trained to maintain it. The Gripen is also inexpensive to operate, costing less per flight hour that the F-16 and other aircraft, according to a Janes Strategic Services study commissioned by Saab, the Gripen’s manufacturer.
The Gripen also has a short-takeoff-and-landing capability, allowing it to use small airfields and even highways, which would be vital if Russia takes out Ukraine’s bigger airfields.
A good jet but hard to find
Despite the Gripen’s stellar reputation and capabilities, it has lost several competitions for contracts, primarily to the US-made F-35 stealth jet.
Besides Sweden, which flies only the Gripen, the jet is operated by just five other countries. It has also never seen direct combat, but the war in Ukraine could offer the aircraft a chance to showcase its capabilities.
Ukrainian officials say “the Gripens present a really unique opportunity for them to showcase how those planes are used in combat,” Alperovitch said.
Part of Ukraine’s pitch to Sweden “is to say ‘look, we can show you combat experience. We can do the marketing for your Gripens. Just give them to us and we’ll show you how they do against the Russian Air Force. That’ll be great for future marketing of your aircraft,'” Alperovitch added.
However, even if Stockholm approves the delivery of Gripens to Kyiv, finding aircraft to send may not be easy.
Of the six countries that fly the jet, only Sweden and the Czech Republic have backed Ukraine in the war. Brazil, South Africa, and Thailand are neutral, while Hungary has been unwilling to give weapons to Ukraine and has threatened to block EU military aid to Kyiv.
The Czech Republic has 14 Gripen Cs and 2 Gripen Ds under lease until 2027, when they will be replaced by F-35s. Its only other combat aircraft are 16 Aero L-159 subsonic light aircraft, but the Czech Republic is also surrounded by allies, which could make it more willing to part with some of its jets.
Sweden operates about 80 Gripen Cs and has ordered 60 Gripen Es, the new 4.5-generation variant, but has only received a handful. Russian aerial threats are a concern for Sweden, but the number of Gripens that Ukraine wants is “eminently doable and would not substantially decrease the capabilities of the Swedish Air Force,” Alperovitch said, though he declined to say how many Gripens Ukraine is seeking.
Nearly a dozen countries have agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s beginning in August, and John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said this week that F-16s would likely arrive in Ukraine by the end of the year, but US defense officials have said that F-16s are not well suited for the current battlefield in Ukraine.
Poland and Slovakia have provided 27 MiG-29s to supplement Ukraine’s fleet, but keeping those flying will only grow more difficult as they age and their supply chains wither.
In the long-term, Ukraine “probably will need to be on F-16s,” Alperovitch said, “but at least in the short-term in order to help them with fighting back the Russians, I think the Gripens are a great option.”
Constantine Atlamazoglou works on transatlantic and European security. He holds a master’s degree in security studies and European affairs from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. You can contact him on LinkedIn and follow him on Twitter.
